http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/special/summogas.html
"The U.S. retail price of regular gasoline reached an estimated average of $1.52 per gallon in March 2000, about 53 cents per gallon above the same month in 1999. February's average was also 23 cents per gallon above the average seen in January 2000. Increases of this magnitude are highly unusual. The last such episode was associated with the onset of the Gulf War (August 1990). The high nominal gasoline prices being experienced now follow from two important (and related) results of production cutbacks by major producing countries since 1998: dwindling world petroleum inventories and sharply higher crude oil prices. Crude oil prices began a steep upturn on world markets in March of 1999 and continued to climb through the winter just ended. Since then, the cost paid by U.S. refiners for crude oil rose almost $15 per barrel (35 cents per gallon). Meanwhile, U.S. inventories of crude oil and finished products fell sharply. As of April 1, crude oil and motor gasoline inventories were at very low levels in the context of what is considered "normal" for this time of year. Expected demand growth this year, while small by historical standards, is expected to keep stock levels lean, even with anticipated increases in refinery output.
Retail gasoline prices (regular grade) this summer are expected to average $1.46 per gallon, 25 percent higher than last summer’s average of $1.17 per gallon. That projection also exceeds the previous (current-dollar) record summer average of $1.35 recorded in 1981. The peak monthly average price this summer (April) is expected to be $1.52 per gallon, the same as seen in March. Prices are then expected to decline to $1.39 by the end of summer, given the implications of the recently concluded agreement by OPEC members to increase production."
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